As the final
phase of Iranian nuclear deal negotiation is approaching between US Secretary
of State John Kerry and Iranian foreign minister is fast approaching, there
were mixed prospects among various parties involved in the negotiation.
However, most of the Middle Eastern countries are nervous and keenly observing
the outcome of the negotiation.
The main concern
for the Middle Eastern governments and Iranian side is that, If Iran succeeded
in the nuclear deal, the sanction will be lifted from Iran, which will boost
its economy, and in turn modernize its military within a short duration it
could emerge as a dominant power in the Middle East, that could endanger the
Saudi regime in the near future,
Where as if the
Iranian nuclear deal fails, that will lead to chaos in the Middle East, as
already the Houthi rebels are challenging the exiled Yemen President and the
Saudi regime. The deteriorating humanitarian crisis following the bombing of
Yemen and its allies will result in producing more and more violent groups, who
are desperate to take revenge on Saudis against the bombing campaign. There are
possibilities for Iran, to openly arm and aid the Anti-Saudi Shia militants
within Saudi Arabia, Syria and Bahrain, therefore a full pledged mayhem may
result.
The Chinese and Russians
could openly arm the Iranians. Russian president Vladimir Putin already agreed
the supply of S-300 air defense Systems to Iran. Therefore, even the United States and their
allies would be helpless to punish Iran in case If Iran violates from agreed
norms, the same way they did against Iraq and Libya.
However, the
defeat of ISIS in Iraq could embolden the Iran trained Shia rebels to shift their attention to help
either the Yemeni Houthis or Syria’s Azad
government. The Shia majority Iraq government could become a puppet of Iran.
Thus the combined force of Iran, Iraq, Yemen, and Syria could threaten Saudi
Arabia, and other small gulf states such as Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and UAE.
Comments
Post a Comment