The Possible Pros and cons of Iranian Nuclear Deal

As the final phase of Iranian nuclear deal negotiation is approaching between US Secretary of State John Kerry and Iranian foreign minister is fast approaching, there were mixed prospects among various parties involved in the negotiation. However, most of the Middle Eastern countries are nervous and keenly observing the outcome of the negotiation.

The main concern for the Middle Eastern governments and Iranian side is that, If Iran succeeded in the nuclear deal, the sanction will be lifted from Iran, which will boost its economy, and in turn modernize its military within a short duration it could emerge as a dominant power in the Middle East, that could endanger the Saudi regime in the near future,

Where as if the Iranian nuclear deal fails, that will lead to chaos in the Middle East, as already the Houthi rebels are challenging the exiled Yemen President and the Saudi regime. The deteriorating humanitarian crisis following the bombing of Yemen and its allies will result in producing more and more violent groups, who are desperate to take revenge on Saudis against the bombing campaign. There are possibilities for Iran, to openly arm and aid the Anti-Saudi Shia militants within Saudi Arabia, Syria and Bahrain, therefore a full pledged mayhem may result.

The Chinese and Russians could openly arm the Iranians. Russian president Vladimir Putin already agreed the supply of S-300 air defense Systems to Iran. Therefore, even the United States and their allies would be helpless to punish Iran in case If Iran violates from agreed norms, the same way they did against Iraq and Libya.

However, the defeat of ISIS in Iraq could embolden the Iran trained Shia rebels to shift their attention to help either the Yemeni Houthis or Syria’s Azad government. The Shia majority Iraq government could become a puppet of Iran. Thus the combined force of Iran, Iraq, Yemen, and Syria could threaten Saudi Arabia, and other small gulf states such as Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and UAE.

Comments

Future of Syria

Dozens of armed groups are fighting in Syria, for and against the Syrian government as well as ISIS and Al Qaeda. Relatively peaceful middle , other than the Israeli Palestinian conflicts become hot spot of bloodshed and mayhem. Anyone who observed the international crisis in the past few decades will realize that all of this will be the fall out of Iraqi Invasion of United States and its allies. Though various terrorist organizations existed long before, their reach and intensity was of a limited amount. The disbanded Iraqi soldiers and officers, who had years of experience in War and battlefield, have no other choices for their livelihood, other than fighting for some Islamist groups including ISIS and al Qaeda, which exploited their experiences. Now, United States with its allies are arming and training anti-Assad groups in Syria, the same way what they did a few decades back, arming and training the Afghans against then Soviet Union. After the collapse o...

The dilemma, the US faces in its foreign Policy

Following the assassination of Iran’s Quds forces commander Qassem Soleimani, the US faces challenging foreign policy dilemma in the Middle East. The US is aware of the fact that, any conflict with Iran is costly in terms of material and manpower. As many of the US bases are within the striking range of the Iranian ballistic missiles. Many of the allies in the Middle East including Saudi Arabia and UAE, don’t like any open conflict with Iran, as it could go spiralling out of control. Most of the Pro US countries in the region are surrounded by Iran controlled proxy militias, in Iraq, Yemen, Syria and Lebanon. The powerful aircraft carriers of US navy found its fire power obsolete before the swarm of small speed boats of Iranian navy during the recent incident involving bombing of Saudi bound oil tankers in the gulf. Saudi Arabia lost its trust on the US weapons, following a series of missile attacks by Iranian proxies on its vital oil nstall...

How Russia impressed the world?

Despite the Western sanctions, and crippling economy, Russia is moving ahead with hosting the South East Asian Association in the Russian resort city of Sochi. The interesting aspect of this submit is that many of the member countries take part in the summit, were close allies of United States , that indicates their mistrust on the United States’ policy. But how Russians overcome their heart is something noteworthy. First, since the collapse of the Soviet Union and break up of Soviet states into independent countries, Russia never involved in an armed conflict outside of its territory. The recent crisis in Ukraine, and subsequent Western sanctions were viewed by the World as a pure Russian internal problem, that means most of the world still consider the Ukraine and Crimea, as a Russian issue, not a sovereign state issue. The Russian intervention in Syria and its achievement in the conflict by forcing the warring factions into a negotiating table impressed the wo...

International Affaires

Search This Blog